Extreme Weather

Last modified by S2S_ext on 2017/07/07 21:15

Main goals:

Assess the predictability of extreme events such as heat, cold waves, floods at the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale
Sub-seasonal prediction of tropical storms.
Case studies of extreme weather with strong societal impact

Case studies:

1) March 2013 was exceptionally cold over most of Europe and was the second coldest March in the UK since 1910. The cold temperature anomalies also extended over large portions of North America and Asia. This cold event lasted for about a month, and was associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The attached paper, published in Meteoworld (April 2014 issue), describes an investigation on its sub-seasonal predictability and causality. CLOSED

2) Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam of 2015 which was the most intense tropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere in 2015 and one of the worst natural disasters in the history of Vanuatu. lead: Frederic Vitart

3) Sub-seasonal variability of precipitation in the US west coast during the 2015 El-Nino event. lead: Charles Jones

Ongoing studies (most of them use the S2S database):

. Predictability of tropical storms and their modulation by MJO and ENSO (F. Vitart)

. Predictability of weather regimes, heat waves and cold waves over Europe and their relationship to large-scale circulation patterns (L. Ferranti)

. Prediction of California drought index and its link to ENSO in CFS.v2 (Mingyue Chen)

. Drought forecasting using probabilistic precipitation and predictor fields in Europe (C. Lavaysse)

. Modulation of extreme events in the US by the MJO (C. Jones)

. Use of Extreme Forecast Index in S2S models (L. Ferranti)

. Predictability of Atmospheric rivers (M. DeFlorio)

Membership

Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

Yuhei Takaya (JMA)